UFC Fight Night 231 is going to be the first event held in Brazil in three years. More than ten Brazilians are expected to go in the Octagon on Saturday, most notably, Jailton Almeida, who’s fighting a heavyweight duel with Derrick Lewis in the main event of the evening.
The Brazilian fighter is a huge favorite to get his 15th straight win, but Lewis mustn’t be underestimated. This is a guy with a nuclear option in his fists, who’s got a knockout-to-win ratio of 81.48%.
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Odds
| Moneyline | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | -560 |
| Derrick Lewis | +370 |
*Odds taken from FanDuel on Monday, October 30.
When, Where, and How to Watch?
- Place: Ginasio do Ibipuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil
- Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023
- Time: 11:00 p.m. ET
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Reasons Why Jailton Almeida Is -560 Favorite
Jailton Almeida is 19-2 overall with those two defeats happening early in his professional career. In fact, this guy has all wins in his last 14 fights. Five of those wins happened in the UFC, and three of those earned him the Performance of the Night bonus.
He’s already fought two fights this year. In January, we saw him beat Shamil Abdurakhimov by a technical knockout. Four months later, he defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik by submission. The win over Rozenstruik is important because the Surinamese athlete is a similar type of fighter to Almeida’s next opponent.
Both Lewis and Rozenstruik are famous for the devastating power of their punches, but this doesn’t seem to worry Almeida too much. This guy knows how to defend, the evidence being that he’s got hit only nine times since joining the UFC.
Can Derrick Lewis Stage an Upset at UFC Sao Paulo?
Derrick Lewis is the UFC record-holder for most knockout/technical knockout wins. He’s got incredible punching power, but he is slow. He lands just 2.60 significant strikes per minute, which might not be enough for Almeida.
Plus, he just isn’t great when it comes to wrestling, with his takedown defense being only 52%. The last time he lost a fight – last February to Serghei Spivac – we saw Lewis suffer six takedowns.
This could be a real problem for him given that Almeida is a real takedown king who makes 6.40 TDs per fight. That’s more than any opponent Lewis has fought in his nine-and-a-half years-long UFC career.
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction
Our prediction for the UFC Fight Night 231 main event is that it won’t last too long. Instead, we predict that Almeida will take Lewis down and finish him. We can’t say we’re sure about how he’s going to do it, but classic ground-and-pound seems like the most probable scenario.
Pick: Jailton Almeida to win